“A year above 1.5 °C signals that Earth is most probably within the 20-year period that will reach the Paris Agreement limit” (2025), by Emanuele Bevacqua et al. Environmental Science research paper. Original abstract below, unchanged. A free PDF is available.

A year above 1.5 °C signals that Earth is most probably within the 20-year period that will reach the Paris Agreement limit

Emanuele Bevacqua, Carl‐Friedrich Schleussner, Jakob Zscheischler · February 10, 2025 · Environmental Science

Abstract

A single year exceeding a global mean temperature of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels might be imminent. This raises questions about the implications for the Paris Agreement temperature goal. We show that, while the first year above 1.5 °C does not imply that the long-term warming level is reached, it is highly probable that it signals the onset of a 20-year period with an average warming of 1.5 °C.

Free PDF DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02246-9