“A 485-million-year history of Earth’s surface temperature” (2024), by Emily J. Judd et al. Earth and Planetary Sciences research paper. Original abstract below, unchanged. No free PDF was found.

A 485-million-year history of Earth’s surface temperature

Emily J. Judd, Jessica E. Tierney, Daniel John Lunt et al. · September 19, 2024 · Earth and Planetary Sciences

Abstract

A long-term record of global mean surface temperature (GMST) provides critical insight into the dynamical limits of Earth’s climate and the complex feedbacks between temperature and the broader Earth system. Here, we present PhanDA, a reconstruction of GMST over the past 485 million years, generated by statistically integrating proxy data with climate model simulations. PhanDA exhibits a large range of GMST, spanning 11° to 36°C. Partitioning the reconstruction into climate states indicates that more time was spent in warmer rather than colder climates and reveals consistent latitudinal temperature gradients within each state. There is a strong correlation between atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentrations and GMST, identifying CO 2 as the dominant control on variations in Phanerozoic global climate and suggesting an apparent Earth system sensitivity of ~8°C.

Source page DOI: 10.1126/science.adk3705