# Developing clinical prediction models: a step-by-step guide

“Developing clinical prediction models: a step-by-step guide” (2024), by Orestis Efthimiou et al. Mathematics research paper. Original abstract below, unchanged. No free PDF was found.

- Authors: Orestis Efthimiou, Michael Seo, Konstantina Chalkou, Thomas P. A. Debray, Matthias Egger, Georgia Salanti
- Published: September 3, 2024
- Field: Mathematics
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj-2023-078276
- Source: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj-2023-078276

## Abstract

Predicting future outcomes of patients is essential to clinical practice, with many prediction models published each year. Empirical evidence suggests that published studies often have severe methodological limitations, which undermine their usefulness. This article presents a step-by-step guide to help researchers develop and evaluate a clinical prediction model. The guide covers best practices in defining the aim and users, selecting data sources, addressing missing data, exploring alternative modelling options, and assessing model performance. The steps are illustrated using an example from relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. Comprehensive R code is also provided.

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