“Evaluation of clinical prediction models (part 1): from development to external validation” (2024), by Professor Gary S. Collins et al. Mathematics research paper. Original abstract below, unchanged. A free PDF is available.

Evaluation of clinical prediction models (part 1): from development to external validation

Professor Gary S. Collins, Paula Dhiman, Jie Ma et al. · January 8, 2024 · Mathematics

Abstract

Evaluating the performance of a clinical prediction model is crucial to establish its predictive accuracy in the populations and settings intended for use. In this article, the first in a three part series, Collins and colleagues describe the importance of a meaningful evaluation using internal, internal-external, and external validation, as well as exploring heterogeneity, fairness, and generalisability in model performance.

Free PDF DOI: 10.1136/bmj-2023-074819