# Net-zero emission targets for major emitting countries consistent with the Paris Agreement

“Net-zero emission targets for major emitting countries consistent with the Paris Agreement” (2021), by Heleen L. van Soest et al. Economics research paper. Original abstract below, unchanged. A free PDF is available.

- Authors: Heleen L. van Soest, Michel G.J. den Elzen, Detlef Peter van Vuuren
- Published: April 9, 2021
- Field: Economics
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22294-x
- Free PDF: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-22294-x.pdf

## Abstract

Over 100 countries have set or are considering net-zero emissions or neutrality targets. However, most of the information on emissions neutrality (such as timing) is provided for the global level. Here, we look at national-level neutrality-years based on globally cost-effective 1.5 °C and 2 °C scenarios from integrated assessment models. These results indicate that domestic net zero greenhouse gas and CO 2 emissions in Brazil and the USA are reached a decade earlier than the global average, and in India and Indonesia later than global average. These results depend on choices like the accounting of land-use emissions. The results also show that carbon storage and afforestation capacity, income, share of non-CO 2 emissions, and transport sector emissions affect the variance in projected phase-out years across countries. We further compare these results to an alternative approach, using equity-based rules to establish target years. These results can inform policymakers on net-zero targets.

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