# Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England

“Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England” (2021), by Nicholas G. Davies et al. Mathematics research paper. Original abstract below, unchanged. No free PDF was found.

- Authors: Nicholas G. Davies, Sam Abbott, Rosanna C. Barnard, Christopher I Jarvis, Adam J. Kucharski, James D Munday, Carl A. B. Pearson, Timothy Russell, Damien C. Tully, Alex Washburne et al.
- Published: March 3, 2021
- Field: Mathematics
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abg3055
- Source: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abg3055

## Abstract

A severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variant, VOC 202012/01 (lineage B.1.1.7), emerged in southeast England in September 2020 and is rapidly spreading toward fixation. Using a variety of statistical and dynamic modeling approaches, we estimate that this variant has a 43 to 90% (range of 95% credible intervals, 38 to 130%) higher reproduction number than preexisting variants. A fitted two-strain dynamic transmission model shows that VOC 202012/01 will lead to large resurgences of COVID-19 cases. Without stringent control measures, including limited closure of educational institutions and a greatly accelerated vaccine rollout, COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths across England in the first 6 months of 2021 were projected to exceed those in 2020. VOC 202012/01 has spread globally and exhibits a similar transmission increase (59 to 74%) in Denmark, Switzerland, and the United States.

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