# Arctic Sea Ice in CMIP6

“Arctic Sea Ice in CMIP6” (2020), by Dirk Notz et al. Earth and Planetary Sciences research paper. Original abstract below, unchanged. A free PDF is available.

- Authors: Dirk Notz, SIMIP Community
- Published: April 17, 2020
- Field: Earth and Planetary Sciences
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2019gl086749
- Free PDF: https://hal.science/hal-02559658/document

## Abstract

We examine CMIP6 simulations of Arctic sea‐ice area and volume. We find that CMIP6 models produce a wide spread of mean Arctic sea‐ice area, capturing the observational estimate within the multimodel ensemble spread. The CMIP6 multimodel ensemble mean provides a more realistic estimate of the sensitivity of September Arctic sea‐ice area to a given amount of anthropogenic CO 2 emissions and to a given amount of global warming, compared with earlier CMIP experiments. Still, most CMIP6 models fail to simulate at the same time a plausible evolution of sea‐ice area and of global mean surface temperature. In the vast majority of the available CMIP6 simulations, the Arctic Ocean becomes practically sea‐ice free (sea‐ice area <1 × 10 6 km 2 ) in September for the first time before the Year 2050 in each of the four emission scenarios SSP1‐1.9, SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, and SSP5‐8.5 examined here.

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