“Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates” (2017), by Chuang Zhao et al. Agriculture and Biology research paper. Original abstract below, unchanged. A free PDF is available.

Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates

Chuang Zhao, Bing Liu, Shilong L. Piao et al. · August 15, 2017 · Agriculture and Biology

Abstract

Significance Agricultural production is vulnerable to climate change. Understanding climate change, especially the temperature impacts, is critical if policymakers, agriculturalists, and crop breeders are to ensure global food security. Our study, by compiling extensive published results from four analytical methods, shows that independent methods consistently estimated negative temperature impacts on yields of four major crops at the global scale, generally underpinned by similar impacts at country and site scales. Multimethod analyses improved the confidence in assessments of future climate impacts on global major crops, with important implications for developing crop- and region-specific adaptation strategies to ensure future food supply of an increasing world population.

Free PDF DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1701762114