# Doubling of coastal flooding frequency within decades due to sea-level rise

“Doubling of coastal flooding frequency within decades due to sea-level rise” (2017), by Sean Vitousek et al. Earth and Planetary Sciences research paper. Original abstract below, unchanged. A free PDF is available.

- Authors: Sean Vitousek, Patrick L. Barnard, Charles Henry Fletcher, L. Neil Frazer, Li Erikson, Curt D. Storlazzi
- Published: April 26, 2017
- Field: Earth and Planetary Sciences
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-01362-7
- Free PDF: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-01362-7.pdf

## Abstract

Global climate change drives sea-level rise, increasing the frequency of coastal flooding. In most coastal regions, the amount of sea-level rise occurring over years to decades is significantly smaller than normal ocean-level fluctuations caused by tides, waves, and storm surge. However, even gradual sea-level rise can rapidly increase the frequency and severity of coastal flooding. So far, global-scale estimates of increased coastal flooding due to sea-level rise have not considered elevated water levels due to waves, and thus underestimate the potential impact. Here we use extreme value theory to combine sea-level projections with wave, tide, and storm surge models to estimate increases in coastal flooding on a continuous global scale. We find that regions with limited water-level variability, i.e., short-tailed flood-level distributions, located mainly in the Tropics, will experience the largest increases in flooding frequency. The 10 to 20 cm of sea-level rise expected no later than 2050 will more than double the frequency of extreme water-level events in the Tropics, impairing the developing economies of equatorial coastal cities and the habitability of low-lying Pacific island nations.

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